Standard & Poor’s downgraded the sovereign rating of the US from AAA to AA+ on 5 August 2011. The main reasons cited for the action were the $14.2 trillion debt, about 100 % of the GDP and the high fiscal deficit. This caused a huge turmoil in the financial markets the following week.
So the US is out of the AAA club. Who are the other members of this club? S & P has 13 nations on its list. There are Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom. Who is the odd one out? It has to be Singapore – a non Caucasian nation and the only one from Asia.
How is it possible that Singapore - a small nation, is in the club? Well, firstly, Singapore’s GDP per capita of US$56,521 is one of the highest among the club members. Secondly, Singapore’s 3 banks, OCBC, DBS and UOB are among the top six strongest banks in the world. In fact, OCBC came out top. It also has a foreign reserve of $250 billion.
Singapore has the highest millionaire density in the world. 11.4 % of its households are in the millionaire category. It is projected that by 2015, Singapore will have the world's highest per capita wealth - $4.5 million. For comparison, Switzerland, the highest per capita wealth now, has a value of $4.2 million.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
The Hong kong Dollar
The Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the Sterling post WWII for economic reasons. It was later switched to the US dollar. Pegging a developing country’s currency to that of its largest trading partner has distinct advantages. You lock in your labour cost advantage which happens to be your greatest development asset. The negative aspect is that you lose control of your domestic monetary policy.
In the mid-Seventies, the US started a cycle of huge monetary stimulus that spawned a high inflationary spiral years later. The medicine used to combat inflation was high interest rate. This resulted in a deep recession for the early Eighties. Hong Kong made a wise decision to unpeg from the USD in 1974. It avoided the malaise that inflicted the US.
In October 1983, Hong Kong repegged its dollar to the USD. This time, it was for political reasons. Hong Kong was to be handed back to the mainland in 1997. Hongkongers were considering moving their wealth out of HKD or the place itself. So, the HK administration decided to repeg to avert such a crisis. The peg of HKD 7.80 to 1 USD has survived with minor modification, till now.
In the last one year, the USD has depreciated against the Yuan. It went from 6.83 Yuan to 1 USD to 6.47. This represents a 5.3 % appreciation of the Yuan or by corollary a 5 % depreciation of the HKD. During this same period, the SGD has moved up against the USD from 1.4 to 1.25. This is a 10.7 % improvement. So, the HKD, vis-à-vis the SGD has depreciated 10.7 % in the last one year. Does Hong Kong need this devaluation to stay competitive?
Already, many Hong Kong residents are converting their savings to the Yuan. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong now total some Y400 billion. This is expected to hit Y2 trillion by the end of 2012. Exposure to property is seen as a way of being long the Chinese currency over time. That is why the property market in Hong Kong is booming. Inflation in Hong Kong is aggravated by the lost of purchasing power of its currency.
Should Hong Kong remove the peg or peg its currency to other currencies? Its basic law requires it to peg to a freely convertible currency. Renminbi is out because it still has capital controls and does not trade freely. There is increasing support to peg to a basket of currencies like Singapore does. The Yuan can be a component of the basket and does not contradict the basic law.
Pundits think that the adoption of the basket will be done soon. When that happens, the HKD is expected to appreciate. So, keep an eye out for this.
In the mid-Seventies, the US started a cycle of huge monetary stimulus that spawned a high inflationary spiral years later. The medicine used to combat inflation was high interest rate. This resulted in a deep recession for the early Eighties. Hong Kong made a wise decision to unpeg from the USD in 1974. It avoided the malaise that inflicted the US.
In October 1983, Hong Kong repegged its dollar to the USD. This time, it was for political reasons. Hong Kong was to be handed back to the mainland in 1997. Hongkongers were considering moving their wealth out of HKD or the place itself. So, the HK administration decided to repeg to avert such a crisis. The peg of HKD 7.80 to 1 USD has survived with minor modification, till now.
In the last one year, the USD has depreciated against the Yuan. It went from 6.83 Yuan to 1 USD to 6.47. This represents a 5.3 % appreciation of the Yuan or by corollary a 5 % depreciation of the HKD. During this same period, the SGD has moved up against the USD from 1.4 to 1.25. This is a 10.7 % improvement. So, the HKD, vis-à-vis the SGD has depreciated 10.7 % in the last one year. Does Hong Kong need this devaluation to stay competitive?
Already, many Hong Kong residents are converting their savings to the Yuan. Yuan deposits in Hong Kong now total some Y400 billion. This is expected to hit Y2 trillion by the end of 2012. Exposure to property is seen as a way of being long the Chinese currency over time. That is why the property market in Hong Kong is booming. Inflation in Hong Kong is aggravated by the lost of purchasing power of its currency.
Should Hong Kong remove the peg or peg its currency to other currencies? Its basic law requires it to peg to a freely convertible currency. Renminbi is out because it still has capital controls and does not trade freely. There is increasing support to peg to a basket of currencies like Singapore does. The Yuan can be a component of the basket and does not contradict the basic law.
Pundits think that the adoption of the basket will be done soon. When that happens, the HKD is expected to appreciate. So, keep an eye out for this.
Monday, June 6, 2011
Whither the Euro?
Will the Euro survive? It all depends on how things pan out in Greece. First, it depends on whether Greece will resolve to push through austerity measures to reduce its budget deficits. Or, are the richer members of the Eurozone (23 nations) willing to support the weakest. Then, Greece could default on its debts. The last option would be for Greece to leave the Euro.
Greece has a debt to GDP ratio of 140%. Its total debt is E340 billion. Its unemployment rate is at a record 15%. It is contemplating selling state-owned enterprises to raise money to pare down the debt. The assets under consideration are its telephone company, post office and ports. These sales could potentially raise E50 billion. Asset sales are an attractive way of cleaning up the public balance-sheet without doing anything that further chokes demand.
On May 20th, Fitch cut Greece’s debt rating by another three notches. Greek ten-year bonds are now giving a yield of 16.8 %. At this rate, Greece cannot afford to borrow anew from the market. (Greece needs funds to redeem its maturing bonds.) So, it will have to depend on the stronger partners for handouts. But the stronger members like Germany and France will face revolt at home if public fund is used to bail out other nations. As such, this is unlikely to happen.
So is default inevitable? A default by Greece would make investors shun Greek debt and make it hard for the country to borrow. A more palatable option would be for the creditors to grant an extension on the maturity of their bonds i.e. roll over their bonds when they fall due. That would keep Greece away from the market for a while. Also, it would give Greece a reduction of 20 to 25% on the present value of their debt. That is tantamount to the creditors taking a haircut on their Greek debt.
What about Greece leaving the Eurozone? Leaving would allow it to inflate its economy, devalue its currency and maintain competitiveness. However, the disadvantages are that it would expand its debt burden, provoke capital flight, cause turmoil across Europe’s banks and endanger its membership of the EU. That would bring more misery to its people. It would be on its own. So, Greece would probably not leave the Euro and the Euro would probably survive.
Greece has a debt to GDP ratio of 140%. Its total debt is E340 billion. Its unemployment rate is at a record 15%. It is contemplating selling state-owned enterprises to raise money to pare down the debt. The assets under consideration are its telephone company, post office and ports. These sales could potentially raise E50 billion. Asset sales are an attractive way of cleaning up the public balance-sheet without doing anything that further chokes demand.
On May 20th, Fitch cut Greece’s debt rating by another three notches. Greek ten-year bonds are now giving a yield of 16.8 %. At this rate, Greece cannot afford to borrow anew from the market. (Greece needs funds to redeem its maturing bonds.) So, it will have to depend on the stronger partners for handouts. But the stronger members like Germany and France will face revolt at home if public fund is used to bail out other nations. As such, this is unlikely to happen.
So is default inevitable? A default by Greece would make investors shun Greek debt and make it hard for the country to borrow. A more palatable option would be for the creditors to grant an extension on the maturity of their bonds i.e. roll over their bonds when they fall due. That would keep Greece away from the market for a while. Also, it would give Greece a reduction of 20 to 25% on the present value of their debt. That is tantamount to the creditors taking a haircut on their Greek debt.
What about Greece leaving the Eurozone? Leaving would allow it to inflate its economy, devalue its currency and maintain competitiveness. However, the disadvantages are that it would expand its debt burden, provoke capital flight, cause turmoil across Europe’s banks and endanger its membership of the EU. That would bring more misery to its people. It would be on its own. So, Greece would probably not leave the Euro and the Euro would probably survive.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The Big Brain Drain
Malaysia has a huge brain drain problem. The country’s human capital is haemorrhaging. A conservative estimate puts the number of Malaysians working outside the country as 1 million in 2010. This diaspora is large and expanding. One out of every five Malaysian with tertiary education has emigrated. The country aims to be a high income nation. But human capital is the bedrock of a high income economy. So, the irony is that Malaysia needs talent, but talent seems to be leaving.
Why is there such a big outflow of skilled people? There are two main reasons for this: the push and pull factors. On the domestic front, the push factors are corruption, social inequality, lack of religious freedom and educational opportunities and the government’s affirmative action policies. Outside, the pull factors are better career opportunities, better compensation and a better quality of life.
Singapore is the chief beneficiary of this brain drain. The island nation takes in about 57 of the total diaspora. Of this, 90% are ethnic Chinese. The Malaysian migrant community there has grown at a rate of about 6% over the last decade. Other receiving countries are Australia, Brunei, United States and United Kingdom.
Malaysia too has its immigrants. According to the 2000 census, 1.3 million or 5.9% of the country’s population are foreigners. As of this moment, that figure may have swelled to 4 million. But these are mainly uneducated and unskilled workers from Indonesia and Southern Philippines. They are encouraged to settle here to create racial dominance. So, for political expediency, the country has sacrificed quality for quantity. What can you say about that?
Why is there such a big outflow of skilled people? There are two main reasons for this: the push and pull factors. On the domestic front, the push factors are corruption, social inequality, lack of religious freedom and educational opportunities and the government’s affirmative action policies. Outside, the pull factors are better career opportunities, better compensation and a better quality of life.
Singapore is the chief beneficiary of this brain drain. The island nation takes in about 57 of the total diaspora. Of this, 90% are ethnic Chinese. The Malaysian migrant community there has grown at a rate of about 6% over the last decade. Other receiving countries are Australia, Brunei, United States and United Kingdom.
Malaysia too has its immigrants. According to the 2000 census, 1.3 million or 5.9% of the country’s population are foreigners. As of this moment, that figure may have swelled to 4 million. But these are mainly uneducated and unskilled workers from Indonesia and Southern Philippines. They are encouraged to settle here to create racial dominance. So, for political expediency, the country has sacrificed quality for quantity. What can you say about that?
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Will the sun shine again
Japan was inflicted with the triple disaster of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake, 10 m high wave tsunami and the resulting nuclear radiation crisis on 11 March 2011. The destruction was widespread and extensive. The cost of the damages is estimated to be about US$309 billion and an estimate of US$200 billion is required for the rebuilding of homes, factories, roads and bridges. So, where is the government going to get all this money?
The Japanese government is already the most indebted among the advanced nations. Its public debt is equal to 200% of its GDP – about US$10 trillion. This has been accumulated over the last two decades when, the government, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, spent an enormous sum to build infrastructures like bridges to nowhere and concrete jungles along the shorelines. How much more debt can it take on?
The saving grace is that this 126 million people nation is rich. Japanese households sock away a massive savings of US$18 trillion. 95% of the public debt is funded by local institutions and its citizens. All of this at near-zero interest rate. The country also has a foreign reserve of US$1 trillion.
The government may issue more Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to fund reconstruction. But the domestic life insurance companies and the Government Pension Investment Fund may not be able to absorb much more of the new JGBs as they have to support more pension-related costs due to the aging population. That means foreigners will be expected to pick up some of the new JGBs. But, they will only do so at a much higher interest rate. This (higher interest rate) the Japanese government definitely cannot afford to pay.
However grim the situation may look today, you can be sure that the Japanese will rise again. It is their indomitable spirit and stoical character that will make them prevail. Just give them a decade and see.
The Japanese government is already the most indebted among the advanced nations. Its public debt is equal to 200% of its GDP – about US$10 trillion. This has been accumulated over the last two decades when, the government, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, spent an enormous sum to build infrastructures like bridges to nowhere and concrete jungles along the shorelines. How much more debt can it take on?
The saving grace is that this 126 million people nation is rich. Japanese households sock away a massive savings of US$18 trillion. 95% of the public debt is funded by local institutions and its citizens. All of this at near-zero interest rate. The country also has a foreign reserve of US$1 trillion.
The government may issue more Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to fund reconstruction. But the domestic life insurance companies and the Government Pension Investment Fund may not be able to absorb much more of the new JGBs as they have to support more pension-related costs due to the aging population. That means foreigners will be expected to pick up some of the new JGBs. But, they will only do so at a much higher interest rate. This (higher interest rate) the Japanese government definitely cannot afford to pay.
However grim the situation may look today, you can be sure that the Japanese will rise again. It is their indomitable spirit and stoical character that will make them prevail. Just give them a decade and see.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Global Financial Integrity (GFI) has reported that Malaysia had an illicit financial outflow of US$291 billion (RM889 billion) in the period from 2000 to 2008. This is an enormous amount of money – equal to 150% of its 2009 GDP. Malaysia ranked fifth among countries with huge outflows. Critically, the first 4 countries are much larger economies like China, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. So, can Malaysia, a small economy, afford such a huge outflow?
Why is there such a big outflow from the country? Foremost, it must be ill gotten gains which need a safe haven such as a Swiss bank account. The ‘dirty’ money could be from corruption, kickbacks from contracts and other illegal means. The people that are involved are mainly politicians, government officials and other people in power. There is evidence that corruption is becoming more rampant in Malaysia. Transparency International’s ranking of how corruption-free Malaysia is has declined from position 36 in 2000 to 56 in 2010.
The Bumiputra policy has irked many business people in the country. Some of them feel that it is better to spread their eggs i.e. have some of their wealth stored outside the country. They do this in the guise of geographical diversification of their businesses. This also leads to an outflow of funds.
Malaysia’s income distribution is highly skewed. This means there is an inordinate number of high net worth individual in the country. These people are highly mobile and are likely to transfer some of their wealth outside the country.
Why is there such a big outflow from the country? Foremost, it must be ill gotten gains which need a safe haven such as a Swiss bank account. The ‘dirty’ money could be from corruption, kickbacks from contracts and other illegal means. The people that are involved are mainly politicians, government officials and other people in power. There is evidence that corruption is becoming more rampant in Malaysia. Transparency International’s ranking of how corruption-free Malaysia is has declined from position 36 in 2000 to 56 in 2010.
The Bumiputra policy has irked many business people in the country. Some of them feel that it is better to spread their eggs i.e. have some of their wealth stored outside the country. They do this in the guise of geographical diversification of their businesses. This also leads to an outflow of funds.
Malaysia’s income distribution is highly skewed. This means there is an inordinate number of high net worth individual in the country. These people are highly mobile and are likely to transfer some of their wealth outside the country.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
The poor Chinaman
Even though China has overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest economy in 2010, its GDP per capita ranked #86 out of 164 countries in 2009. Japan was ranked 19. China’s GDP per capita in 2010 was $4,300. In comparison, that for the US and Japan are $47,100 and $42,500 respectively. Both are nearly 10 times bigger than China.
The US GDP was $14.62 trillion in 2010. Those for China and Japan are $5.74 and $5.39 trillion respectively. So, when will the Chinese economy surpass the US? Some say 2020 while others predict 2025. But one thing is for sure, this is an inevitable event.
China’s inflation rate for January 2011 was 4.9%. But, this is not necessary a bad thing. As wages outpace productivity, workers’ share of the economy will rise – thus boosting consumption. Wage- driven inflation would help to narrow China’s trade surplus through a higher price for its exports. This could be a better way of rebalancing the economy than an outright appreciation of the Yuan. The latter modus operandi would cause big job losses in export firms. A gradual appreciation of the Yuan would also be unpalatable as it attracts large speculative capital inflows.
Inflation would help accelerate China’s GDP in US$ terms. Any appreciation of the Yuan would be helpful too. Whatever it is, a GDP per capita of $4,300 has ample room to grow. China has the technology and the entrepreneurial drive needed for growth. So, there should be no surprise that China would eventually be the number 1 economy someday.
The US GDP was $14.62 trillion in 2010. Those for China and Japan are $5.74 and $5.39 trillion respectively. So, when will the Chinese economy surpass the US? Some say 2020 while others predict 2025. But one thing is for sure, this is an inevitable event.
China’s inflation rate for January 2011 was 4.9%. But, this is not necessary a bad thing. As wages outpace productivity, workers’ share of the economy will rise – thus boosting consumption. Wage- driven inflation would help to narrow China’s trade surplus through a higher price for its exports. This could be a better way of rebalancing the economy than an outright appreciation of the Yuan. The latter modus operandi would cause big job losses in export firms. A gradual appreciation of the Yuan would also be unpalatable as it attracts large speculative capital inflows.
Inflation would help accelerate China’s GDP in US$ terms. Any appreciation of the Yuan would be helpful too. Whatever it is, a GDP per capita of $4,300 has ample room to grow. China has the technology and the entrepreneurial drive needed for growth. So, there should be no surprise that China would eventually be the number 1 economy someday.
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