Sunday, January 30, 2011

Steve Jobs

Below is a description of Steve developed by a Wharton's advanced management programme class which I think is very good.

Steve Jobs's natural talent is to imagine not only what consumers want now but also what they will want in the future -- and pay a premium price for. He searches for discontinuities in the external landscape. He figures out trajectories of new opportunities. Then he conceives and executes not only differentiated products that yield high margin and high brand recognition, but also business models that will exploit them most profitably.

He views a product as an experience, not just an object. He can visualize what it will look and feel like, and can then execute it to near perfection. He makes advanced technology friendly to consumers based on his uncommon talent for connecting it to user experience. He has an innate feel for design, convenience, simplicity, and elegance in the product. He connects the best ideas from widely diverse disciplines to create the consumer experience he's striving for. He figures out precisely what problems need to be solved, however impossible they may seem, and searches for the best people to solve them, regardless of their status.

He is a master of communications. He crafts simple messages that connect with audiences, leveraging his record of innovation to create buzz and build demand for a new product even before it is launched. He relates with consumers, employees, and partners, and turns them into rabid fans. He builds their trust in him, in Apple, and in the Apple brand.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Suicides in Foxconn

‘In 20 years, there will be only 2 companies: Foxconn will make everything and Wal-Mart will sell them.’ That may be a joke. But it does give an indication of how huge Foxconn is.

Foxconn was founded by Terry Gou in 1974. Today it is a colossal contract manufacturer of electronics employing over 800,000 people in more than 20 factories across China. Its revenue is about $55 billion in 2010. It does business with renowned companies like IBM, Cisco, Microsoft, Nokia, Sony, Hewlett-Packard and Apple.

Its factory in Longhua, Shenzhen has a workforce of 300,000 and occupies an area of 2.1 sq. km. It is a self-contained campus with all the basic facilities like hospital, restaurants, banks, Olympic-sized swimming pool, grocery store, internet cafe and a bookstore.

A spate of suicides brought the firm to the limelight. A lot is said about stress being the cause of the suicides – the workers do long hours under inhospitable conditions and poor living conditions in the dormitories. However, there may be a twist to this. It is suspected that some of them may have done it for money. The average worker earns about 2000 Yuan per month. But, the company pays 100,000 Yuan compensation to the family of anyone dying on site. To the unstable 20 year-old, the thought of that much money going to their parents could be attractive.

Monday, January 3, 2011

World car production

In 2009, China became the world’s largest car manufacturing country. It produced a total of 13.79 million units. Out of this, 4.57 million units or 44% were from domestic branded companies. However, total export was only 332400 units – which mean that its domestic consumption is more than 13.4 million units. In comparison, Japan and USA produced 7.93 million and 5.7 million units respectively in the same year.

In contrast, Japan has seen a decline in the number of vehicles produced. From 11.6 million units in both 2007 and 2008, it came down to 7.93 in 2009.

For 2010, China is targeted to produce a total of about 16.4 mil vehicles. Japan will remain as the no.2 with a projected figure of 8.87 mil. The US will have a good year in car production and is expected to cross the line at 7.8 mil. Next is Germany with a total of 5.77 mil.

South Korea came in fifth and produced a total of 3.5 mil vehicles in 2009. It is expected to churn out 4.2 mil units in 2010. Of this, 63% or 2.67 mil units will be exported. Its manufacturers are very aggressively pushing new and improved models. Expect them to up their production and exports as well.

India is a country with a huge potential market for vehicles. Its current production is about 1.0 mil. Expect their factories to increase their output when the consumption power improves.

Asia now produces about 30 mil vehicles a year or about half the world production. With increasing demand coming from Asia, it can be expected that Asia will be the new vehicle manufacturing hub of the world.

Monday, December 27, 2010

China the world's largest economy

China’s GDP in 2009 is about $5 trillion whilst that of the US is $14 trillion – nearly 3 times larger. China overtook Japan to be the 2nd largest economy this year. So, when will China overtake the US to be the world’s largest economy?

The relative GDP figures of 2 countries depend not just on the growth rate. It is also impacted by things like inflation and currency exchange rate. China, which traditionally has a higher inflation rate, will get a boost on its GDP from inflation. Similarly, a strengthening Yuan will help bolster its value of goods and services produced.

In the last decade, the real GDP growth averaged 10.5% for China and 1.7% in America; inflation averaged 3.8% and 2.2% respectively. Since 2005, the Yuan has appreciated an average of 4.2% annually.

Extrapolating from the past, conservatively, we assume an average growth rate over the next decade of 7.5% for China and 2.5% for the US, inflation rate of 4% and 1.5% respectively and the Yuan gaining 3% per year, China should pass the US as the biggest economy in the world by 2020. If, however, China’s growth falters to 5%, then the overtaking date would be 2022 – a mere 2 years later.

So, it is no more a question of whether China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy. Rather, it is a matter of when only.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Stewed in the Irish juice

Up to the late 80s, Ireland was a backwater economy – with high unemployment & huge government debt. In 1987, the unemployment rate was 18 % and the government’s debt was 120 % of the GDP. It was largely an agricultural economy.

Then the government pushed through dramatic economic reforms. Corporate taxes and business regulations were lowered. This opened the economy to the rest of Europe and attracted a lot of biotechnology and high tech investments. The country prospered. Its per capita income growth rate shot to 6 % from the historical rate of 3.5 %. Similarly, its GDP growth touched a figure of 10 %.

Wages rose and with it prices. Housing became a good investment. The banks borrowed huge amounts from the international wholesale market and loaned it to the domestic housing market. The feed of easy liquidity engendered a huge housing boom and it snowballed. House prices, construction company stocks, land prices and all things related to construction skyrocketed. By late 2006, the average new house costs 10 times the average earnings.

The boom peaked in late 2006. By the middle of 2007, unsold housing units began to accumulate. Banks began to feel the heat. In late September 2008, a run started in the wholesale markets on Anglo Irish Bank. It was quite clear that the domino effect or contagion would take hold. The government took the unusual step of guaranteeing all deposits and senior debt in the six Irish banks, nationalized Anglo Irish and invested 3.5 billion Euros in two other banks. And that is the start of the Irish economic decline.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Malaysia's household debt

Malaysia’s total household debt is a whopping RM 560 billion as at 31 August 2010 – 55 % of the banking system’s total loans. This is about 72 % of the GDP. The debt is made up of borrowings in residential property, passenger car, credit card, securities and personal use. Residential property and passenger car comprise the largest portions with value of RM 230 billion and RM 123 billion respectively. This is equivalent to 48 % and 26 % of the total debt. Credit card debt is fast rising and has a cumulative value of RM 29 billion – 6 % of the total loans.

Malaysia’s average income per capita is about RM 2000 per month. The household debt to personal disposable income is 140 % in 2009. This figure is higher than Singapore’s 105 % and US’ 123 %. As the disposable income is about 70 % of the gross income, Malaysians owe double the amount they earn.

Of particular concern is Malaysia’s passenger car debt of RM 123 billion. At a quarter of household debt, this is a world record. The reason for this is the high car price in Malaysia and our penchant for wheels. With a population of 28 million, we have 19.8 million registered vehicles as at August 2010. This is a depreciating asset as the value and usability of the car reduces over time.

The kimchi punch

Two significant news on South Korea caught my attention. First, it is the final medal tally for the just completed Asian Games. South Korea came in at number two – behind host nation China but ahead of Japan. SK, with a population of just 48.6 million, managed to gather a total of 76 gold medals. Japan, on the other hand, with a much bigger population of 127 million managed to collect only 48. How did the South Koreans do it?

The second is the results of the Car of the Year 2010 awards conducted by New Straits Times & Maybank. Of the 18 awards available, South Korean manufacturers picked up 5. They even beat Japan who managed to score only in 3 categories. Again, how did they do it?

South Korea is one of the most ethnically and linguistically homogenous society in the world. Technically, they are still at war with their brother state in the north. This makes them very united and competitive. Also, the humiliation suffered by the country in 1997 when it was bailed out by the IMF has made them resolved to better themselves. That is the new spirit of the South Koreans.

One other factor is the country’s emphasis on education and the development of its human capital. Its local universities produced a total of 10,322 Phd holders in 2009. In the same year, 82 % of its high school graduates are enrolled in tertiary educational institutions. A total of 19,847 doctoral positions were offered by their universities. All this has not taken into account the Phd degrees obtained from foreign universities.

They have become very strong in research and development. They are also very innovative. They have become world leaders for a host of electronic products. Watch them. They will become more prominent in the future.